Population, sustainability, climate change and water
The Australian Government is committed to decisive action on climate change, to transform a current threat into an opportunity. As the driest inhabited continent in the world, Australia is more vulnerable to climate change than almost any other developed nation and we need a comprehensive plan to facilitate population growth. But climate change also gives Australia a unique opportunity: with our abundance of natural resources, sun, wind and ocean tidal flows, we could be a world leader in the global low carbon energy revolution that will transform the global economy in coming decades.
The Australia 2020 Summit will examine ways to:
- How Australia develops a long term plan to adapt to the growing impacts of climate change on our environment
- How does Australia best plan for its long-term water and energy needs
- How we position Australia to become a global leader within the next decade in the new low carbon technologies and industries
- How do we plan future population growth at a national and regional level, given the constraints of water shortages and sustainability.
Use this online forum to contribute your ideas to the Summit.
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Mr Roger Beale AO, Chairman of the Sustainability & Climate Change stream of the Australia 2020 Summit, wishes to thank all the contributors of Open Forum.
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Comments
Implications of being in a global emergency
A crucial question is: Are we in a global emergency with a short timeframe - or not? In my view trend lines and incipient tipping points indicate that we are in a global emergency.
If Kevin Rudd accepts that we are in a global emergency, he should:
- Exert leadership a la Churchill, saying that we are in a global emergency, we should all recognize that rapid change is imperative, and as a government we are going to invest massively in dealing with it.
- Take a stand to influence other governments
- Advocate Tradeable Emissions Quotas (TEQ) rather than carbon trading. TEQs are a form of rationing that apply to both individuals and companies, and force (by social agreement) all of us to take responsibility for reducing emissions. The point is to reduce emissions, not just offset them. Ian Dunlop is the former head of the Institute of Company Directors. His paper about TEQs is here http://www.aspo-australia.org.au/References/Bruce/ITD-ETTG-Subm-0307.pdf
- Invest massively in renewable energy and in retrofitting buildings, since these are the fastest and most immediate ways to reduce CO2 emissions.
- Invest massively in building soil fertility and in biochar to rapidly take CO2 out of the atmosphere.
Advanced techniques of organic farming pioneered in Australia can build 10 cm of fertile soil in three years- a phenomenal rate by world standards, but entirely feasible.
Biochar is slow cooked charcoal from wood and other organic materials that when buried permanently takes charcoal out of the atmosphere (www.biochar-international.org/).
Together these two technologies, if deployed globally, appear to have the potential to withdraw enough atmospheric CO2 to pull is back from the brink of runaway global warming. If true, this should be front-page news and a major driver of policy.
Alan Yeomans makes a back-of-the-envelope case that building soil fertility on its own can take us back to preindustrial levels in Chapters 5 & 8 of Priority One
Alex McBratney, Dean of Soil Science at Sydney University, has asserted that a less than 2% increase in soil fertility in agricultural lands globally can take out the 300 gigatons of CO2 required.
However, no authoritative group has gone into the details sufficiently to make a compelling case. This should be a major ‘ think tank’ priority.
Again, if we are in a global emergency, then deploying these technologies should not be left to market forces. Government should invest directly, in the same way that they invest in ships, aeroplanes and armaments in wartime.
Carbon taxes
Carbon taxes vs trading schemes
Carbon taxes are a much better option than trading schemes for reducing greenhouse emissions. Of all legislative methods for reducing emissions, carbon taxes will achieve reductions at the least cost to our economy. They give a much more steady and predictable price on emissions and hence return on investment, which is critical for investors in low emissions technology. They provide a steady revenue stream that allows the government to lower other taxes, thereby offsetting much of the economic impact. They require less government intervention for continual reductions. They avoid the need to buy back emissions rights. They give the public the right to clean air rather than selling companies the right to pollute.
So far all trading schemes have resulted in lower than expected prices on emissions, often low enough to undermine the proper functioning of the scheme. This indicates that the economy is capable of reducing emissions faster and cheaper than expected. Carbon taxes will take full advantage of this ability as they direct the ‘power of market forces' towards continually reducing emissions, rather than merely reducing the price on emissions with sporadic, politically driven reductions in emissions.
http://www.ozpolitic.com/green-tax-shift/green-tax-shift.html#taxes-vs-tradinghttp://www.ozpolitic.com/green-tax-shift/garnaut-rubber-stamp.html
Ross Garnaut has recently acknowledged that taxes give far less scope for corruption and lobbying to avoid the price rise than trading schemes. Despite this, and the fact that the Garnaut report's scope obviously includes a comparison of taxation vs trading, the Labor party has locked us in to trading schemes and prevented Garnaut from giving the question adequate consideration.
Water management
The taxation approach can also be applied to water management. Rather than rationing water and using an ad hoc communist style approach to reducing consumption and handing out water rights, we should simply charge a uniform price for water across catchments or other appropriate regions. The charge would again raise revenue and allow the reduction of other taxes. It would ensure that the cheapest methods of saving water are employed first and that we don't embark on expensive infrastructure projects until the economics justifies it.
Populate and Perish
Sorry, I can't see much correlation between increasing our population and sustainability. Why do we need to endlessly increase our population? This idea has been the dominant paradigm in this country for some time now which appears to me to be the main reason it continues to exist. I believe logic and good sense should prevail to kill this sacred cow of an idea. There are plenty of prosperous countries in the world not increasing their populations so why do we continue to do so? The Aboriginal people of this country achieved equilibrium and balance with the environment and became care takers of this land over many thousands of years. Why can't we return to this belief that we are here to take care of this country and not exploit it?
Population Policy
Before we develop a holistic transport plan, a plan for carbon emissions control, a plan for water or any of the other matters being discussed at present we need to plan our population.
We need to know clearly and in detail how many people we are planning for, otherwise it is quite impossible to get it right.
Government, both state and federal, has to document its projections in detail and these have to be openly debated. We should know population targets and how these are to be achieved. We need to know whether our population policy is based on economic targets or whether our economic targets are based on our population.
We need to know what parts natural increase and net migration play in these figures.
This work is absolutely urgent. There is so much work being done, so much energy being expended when the most important variable of all is little known and undebated.
Many of us are concerned that the present population growth is unsustainable and we write letter to paper etc. but they are rarely printed or achnowledged. They are certainly never responded to.
Please will someone be prepared to put in writing an arguement for how we can reconcile our present push for more babies and more migrants with a sustainable future.
population etc
I don't think we need to 'stop everything' until we get a population plan done, but it should be taken into consideration before doing silly things like the baby bonus.
The interaction between population, sustainability, quality of life and technology:
http://www.ozpolitic.com/articles/population-sustainability.html#IPAT
"Special Environmental Construction Zones”
[ this is my submission to the 2020 summit ]
As we face the environmental challenges we are going to have to change the way we construct our towns, cities and buildings in quite substantial ways. Unfortunately building design changes quite slowly due the long life of buildings and a natural, but understandable conservatism in the building industry. It would be advantageous if we could accelerate the process of innovation so that buildings started today are as environmentally friendly as possible.
I propose the creation of “Special Environmental Construction Zones” in a few locations throughout the country for this purpose. These “Special Environmental Construction Zones” (SECZ) would have their own building and planning regulations and be outside the normal local council and state laws development is subject to. They would instead have their own special set of administrative laws and processes and their own separate governing body which would be designed to make constructing the “greenest” possible development. In return for a very flexible regulatory environment, buildings within these zones would be required to be of ultra high standards for energy use, greenhouse gas emissions and water usage.
This would not be a primarily government funded endeavor. Builders would be invited to construct and sell housing within these SECZ’s as happens with normal housing developments. These SECZ's would create models of what environmentally sustainable buildings and communites that could then be emulated by the rest of the country.
The aim would be to in a relatively short period of time
1) Learn what regulations need to be changed to make this kind of construction easier and more effective.
2) Learn about which housing designs work, which do not and what the pitfalls of different types of construction are.
3) Learn what types of green building designs are attractive to consumers.
4) Experiment with new technologies to see if they work and are cost effective in real world situations.
5) Experiment with novel approaches to public infrastructure.
The hoped for result of all this would be
a) Businesses that know how to construct “green homes” would be able to demonstrate their products.
b) Traditional building enterprises that are looking to move into more environmentally friendly methods of construction could learn how by building in these zones.
c) New environmentally friendly building technologies could prove their effectiveness leading to faster take up.
d) Local Councils and State governments could learn the costs and benefits of tighter environmental building standards.
Innovation would not be limited to the buildings. The chance to construct a housing development from scratch would allow for novel designs for public infrastructure to be tried. For example a suburb without cars could be built to see if it is practical or what is needed to make it practical.
Symbolism and follow through
We're in a real mess in terms of carbon emissions, and we need to radically change the way we think about travel, fun and business if we are going to get out of it.
First up we need to travel differently, and without legislation that just isn't going to happen. The "hoy no circula" plolicy in Mexico city is an excellent example of simple leglistation which forces people to car pool, and use public transport rather than just hopping in the car. We're not going to do it without a bit of a push, so I would encourage the federal government to mandate for limits to personal car usage. Sybolically, and practically cars should be gradually banned from the inner city, especially Sydney. This way people will be more likely to come in and leave by public transport, reducing polution, carbon emissions and improving the health of the population by forcing us to walk more. Of course concessions need to be made for public transport, ambulances, deloivery vehicles and the like, but private cars should be banned.
The second area we need to look at is the way we entertain ourselves. Electronic entertainment, computer games, big screen TVs and so forth, are not only socially alienating, and even debilitating, they are also humongous wates of carbon. Health wise and planet wise it would be better for us to limit the sale of these screnes to private homes, and look for ways to replace the screen with entertainment which contributes to society. Kids are far better off engaging in physical and mental activity after school than they are sitting in front of a screen larger than they are. Along with an advertising campaign linking bad parenting with computer games and television watching, we need to include the cost of the electricity with the initial price of all electrical goods. At present, electronic consumer goods are comming down in price, and the electricity they use is heavily subsidised. That is an equation which needs to be evened through a system of tariffs on electrical consumer goods - so that ultimately it's cheeper to insulate a house than it is to buy an air conditioner, and cheeper to send your kids to little athletics after school rather than sit them in front of the idiot box.
I'd also like to see the goverment grab the whole transport issue by the short and curlies and ban all non-necessary aeroplane travel for government employees, and politicians. We should be using videoconferencing technologies rather than face to face meetings to conduct our get togethers. Not only would this be a powerful symbolic measure, it would also create economices of scale on the technology makeing it more accessible for the private sector.
Finally we need a big shake out of outdated business and governement practices which see us spend hours travelling to and from work to do a job which could be completed perfectly well from our houses. Not only would working from home massively reduce our carbon emissions, it would also build happier families and safer communities, and the only thing standing in it's way is paternalistic bosses who want to see people working in front of them. They need to get over it, and get in contact with the knowledge economy - clearly you can't run a hospital via the internet, but the vast majority of office jobs can be carried out perfectly well from home using web based technologies.
In the 80s through a mixture of advertising campaigns and penalities we managed to make drink driving shameful. I think we should do the same for the owner ship of big screen TVs, four wheel drives, air conditioners, non-essential car usage and aeroplane travel.
We need big symbolism backed up by legislation, tariffs and taxes so that the cost of a new product more adequately reflects its true cost, and we need it now.
Why not ban computers too?
Actually, I hope the Labour Party adopts the policies advocated by the previous writer in good time for the next election. A ban on the ownership of big screen TVs, four wheel drives, air conditioners and a state clamp down on "non-essential car usage" and aeroplane travel would see it kicked out of power by the people of Australia until well after 2020. If Australia really wished to limit its carbon output it would stop rampant land clearing and close down its highly profitable coal mines while embracing nuclear energy. It doesn't seem likely that this is going to happen but allowing the state to criminalise those with a modern TV isn't a reasonable alternative. Quite how a videoconference would work for two hundred people crowded round a 12inch black and white portable I don't know but practicality is hardly the watchword here.
All too often the global warming scare is used as a convenient cudgel by those who wish to increase state, and their own, control over other people's lives under any available pretext. The lights may have gone off for an hour in some expensive waterside homes on the harbour recently, but I don't see any of them being sold off because their owners truly believe sea levels are going to surge. Even Cuba is finally decriminalising the ownership of toasters these days. I actually think the TV companies are doing their best to reduce TV usage in Australia with their appalling programming and presentation, but that, like everything else here, is just a personal opinion.
whoah
Let's not get carried away. It sounds like you are trying to use carbon emissions as a cover for draconian interference by government in our private lives. The sort of legislation you propose is totally unworkable. For example, people would get around the requirement for 'necessary' air travel by flying across the country to purchase some bags of gravel for the company driveway, and visiting their family while they are at it. The outcome would be tonnes of uselss paperwork and in some cases more emissions. What you would end up with is communist style rationing and a trippling of the economic impact of any emissions reductions actually achieved. You are trying to make this far more complex and costly than necessary.
The problem is greenhouse emissions, not TV's, plane flights, cars, lights, or anything else. There is no need to eliminate people's choice. If someone wants to pay enough to get the same thing in a carbon neutral manner, they should be able to. The environment doesn't care how we reduce our emissions, but our society, our economy and our values on personal freedom certainly do.
If you want to get the public to totally reject efforts to reduce emissions, you are going about it the right way, by tying it to economic collapse and totally unnecessary Orwellian control over our private lives.
by way of clarification
I never said we should ban big TVs, air travel or car usage - but we need to look seriously at restructuring the way we work and play to significantly reduce our emissions. and silly little tree planting campaigns simply won't be enough this time around.
We need structure pricing so that the cost of the long term electricity and the eventual disposal of consumer electronics be included in the purchase price, more accurately reflecting their impact on the environment. Ultimately too excesive reliance on electronic entertainment is extremely detrimental to childhood development, and I think parents have a right to understand the harm they are doing to their kids by buying them an xBox for Christmas, so yes I think an government information campaign is in order.
As for air travel - if you've ever tried to calculate your own carbon emissions, or been involved in a green audit you hair would stand on end when you saw the way air travel blows out carbon emissions - we seriously need to look at changing business and government practices to significantly reduce air travel, and I think the symbolism of the government dropping non-essential travel would be a great boost to those companies who are also attempting to reduce carbon emissions.
Choice has had dominance on the economic stage for the last two decades, and look at the mess we're in! The only way we'll solve the environmental crisis is by working together intelligently - not banging the libertarian drum.
The only way we'll get out of this one is by working together, and the only effective instrument for that is government.
muddying the waters
Very sorry for causing confusion - let me explain...
emissions not consumer goods
you impose a tax on consumer electrical goods which reflects the capital expenditure required to be invested in the electricity grid to provide the electricity which that good will ultimately use
So if someone runs their air conditioner from a solar panel they still have to pay the tax?
You seem a bit hung up on consumer electronics. But it is not consumer electronics that are the problem, it is greenhouse emissions. You have to get the price signals right, otherwise you just screw everything up. So instead of taxing consumer electronics, you should tax carbon emissions. If the price of electricity rises, people will start taking it into account with their purchases. Many already do. The only direct government interference that is necessary for consumer electronics is mandatory labelling informing consumers about the electricity load.
You also include the cost of disposal of the good at the end of it's life.
I think it's easier to just make the manufacturers legally responsible for the disposal of large goods and let the market take care of the mechanism.
point taken
I understand entirely where you're comming from freediver, but the challenge I see if you target the price of energy is the broader effects it will have on the economy. Essentially you'd force a price shock, which would feed into broad based inflation, and cause all sorts of economic and social problems.
This is why I'd opt to target the devices which consumer the power, rather than the power itself because it's less disruptive, although if you can suggest a pricing mechanism to reduce power consumption which wouldn't result in broad based inflation I'd be keen to find out more.
As for factoring in the price of disposal, there are a number of ways you could approach it, but makeing the manufacturers responsible for the disposal of the goods at the end of life would take some serious work at the WTO, what do you do when a good is manufactured in one country but sold in another, or when the company that actually manufactured the good goes bankrupt, mergers with or is bought by another business, and so on and so forth...
I think it's a price which needs to be factored in at point of sale, but I'd have to defer to those with more experience in these matters as to how it might be most successfully managed. The printing company Kyocera have an interesting approach whereby they have an international agreement with Sims Metal who are contracted to recycle every Kyocera machine at end of life. The arrangement has been in place for a while now and it hasn't actually increased the cost of Kyocera printers or copiers all that much.
emissions not energy
but makeing the manufacturers responsible for the disposal of the goods at the end of life would take some serious work at the WTO, what do you do when a good is manufactured in one country but sold in another
They do it that way in Germany. You just threaten to ban the importation of their product if they don't obey the law.
This is why I'd opt to target the devices which consumer the power, rather than the power itself because it's less disruptive
Why is it less disruptive? For a given amount of emissions reductions, that would be far more disruptive. The simplest explanation is that putting a price on emissions lets you take advantage of all the really cheap ways to reduce emissions, and there are a lot of them. If you try to limit the sectors where you reduce emissions, you inevitably miss the easy targets and end up forcing very expensive options onto the table.
but the challenge I see if you target the price of energy....
You target the price of emissions, not the price of energy. Energy is never the 'final product' wanted by the consumer. It is always an intermediate product. There are lots of ways to achieve the same final product, or even an alternative product with which the consumer is just as happy, while using far less energy, or more importantly far less emissions. The only way to get at all of these is via a price on emissions.
As for inflation, if you offset an emissions tax with a reduction in the GST, you eliminate most of the inflationary effect.
Population - A target please
I agree with the previous posters re population..
We need a population target.
Australia, Ethanol and its dependence of Crude Oil
The most impressive thing about search engines is that one can quickly find relative topics on subjects of interest within milliseconds. With 1000 "brain-stormers" in action on the weekend, I'm totally stunned there is not a mention of Ethanol apart from the fact that one Australian car manufacturer is working towards exporting cars that include ethanol powered hybrids. May I say that I'm disappointed that the following topics were not covered.
As soon as we get the World's car manufacturers design out dependency of crude oil for internal combustion powered vehicles, the sooner our climate recovers from our (well maybe the USA) high energy needs by- product called Global Warming
biofuels are bad
It looks like biofuels aren't as great as they were initially made out to be. Lately almost all the comments from scientists and environmental organisations about the idea have been negative. Maybe if they get a sewage or fluid based production system up and running things will change, but based on current technologies the negatives outweigh the positives.
http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1169519086
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Sustainability and Climate
HYDROGEN. The most abundant resourse available to us, and we don't utalise it. It appears to me that the summit for big ideas isn't thinking anywhere near big enough. Sure there are suggestions on the table that can, and should be utilised, but these are only short veiw, stop gap measures. Let's be honest, there are powerfull ecconomic forces at play that have a vested interest in keeping the status quo. There is a lot of money to be made from George W Bush's quote, "We are addicted to oil". We have even invaded a sovereign country, under the disguise of regime change, in an attempt to control oil reserves. That is a very bad indictment of our addiction. It is costing people their lives, not to mention the continued damage to our enviroment.
Concider this. The two largest nations on our planet, are increasingly seaking the benefits that the west has enjoyed from the energy obtained from Hydrocarbons. This is not only going to increase the rapidly advancing deterioration of our enviroment, through the accumulation of greenhouse gasses. It also means the cost of these deminishing resources is going to continue to escalate. The way fuel prices are going, it is becoming increasingly ecomomically prudent, to find a less harmful and more abundent sustitute. My suggestion is Hydrogen. It is certainly more abundent than oil, or uranium for that matter, and it also burns cleaner, and can be used in a way that is zero emission. ie: Fuel Cells. It also has the benefit of not producing difficult to handle toxic waste.
Why not think bigger and convert our society from a Hydrocarbon economy to a Hydrogen economy. Sure there is going to be issues and problems along the way. With sufficient effort and resourses, I am certain that we can make this work. Let us be a world leader, not a follower, and develope the technology required to make Hydrogen a safe, reliable and prefered energy resource. Bring Hydrogen from the background to the foreground. Afterall there is an increasing global market for reliable clean energy.
If nothing else, we have a responsibility to future generations, to do our very best to rectify the damage we have done with our senseless and self indulgent greed. We are all guilty of this, and are setting a very poor example to developing nations. Let us improve our legacy to the furture. Afterall, don't we love our children.
hydrogen is not a source
Climate Change / Sustainability
1. CSIRO / Uni Alternative fuels / engines research with success qualifying for incentives & extensive IP rights to ensure the fruits of the research see the light of day!
2. Biomass fuels developed from landfills / tips for both power generation and transport fuel requirements, soas not to dedicate farmland to the provision of growing for fuels.
3. Immediate commercialisation of geothermal power generation to substantially reduce the need for coal.
Geothermal is already being commericalised
With regards to gas from landfill, if this is more expensive than other ways to reduce our emissions, eg by repalcing coal with wind energy, with storage if necessary, is there any point in doing it?