I posted this blog a few days ago, predicting Obama would win. I was right on that count. Now we'll get to see how my other predictions about what his presidency will mean for Australia and the region pan out.

"Well, we will shortly know who the next American President will be - in fact, if polling in Ohio and Florida is anything to go by, Barrack Obama, by dawn on Thursday morning will be the new leader of the free world. History will tell us that Obama will be the first African American President in the history of the Republic, an event not lost on the world. History will also show us that the voter turnout for this election will be as a high as the election that saw Kennedy swept to office. In fact figures out today show more than 24.4 million Americans have already cast a ballot. As CNN reports, more registered Democrats have cast a vote than their Republican counterparts. Republicans are outnumbered by 57.3% to 42.7%. If this trend continues it will be the biggest swing in recent history" [posted Tue, 04 Nov '08].

So, the question now becomes - what kind of President is Barrack Obama likely to be and what impact will he have on Australia and the region. First of all, the world economy can expect and immediate lift. The trend in the United States has been post an election if a Republican is elected there is an immediate 2% boost to the economy. When a Democrat is elected President, the boost is more towards 8%. This is similar to a bounce in the polls an Australian Government expects when the budget is handed down, although in Obama's case, this bounce has implications globally.

If the American economy does bounce towards 8%, the markets will recover and the United States will receive its biggest confidence boost since the second election of Bill Clinton. While it will not bring the financial crisis to a halt, it will begin the path to a much needed recovery. The implications for Australia and the region will be immense.

The first 100 days: The first 100 days of Obama's Presidency (not due to begin until the new year) will be fixated on solving the economic crisis and repositioning US foreign policy. In the case of Iraq, the current Security Council regulation allowing the United States (and its allies) to remain in Iraq expires at the end of the year. The Iraqi Government has not wanted to sign off on a new deal, because they believe they will extract better terms from Barrack Obama. They will not. While Barrack Obama wants to exit from Iraq, he will be decisive in doing so and will ensure that America's integrity remains intact. He is likely going to want to retain a presence in the region through the establishment of forward airbases, in a similar way to the Kuwait and Saudi arrangement. In addition, Obama will want to ensure that he is not seen by the electorate as giving into the demands of the Iraqi Government.

Asia and the Pacific: There has been criticism that Obama will take less of an interest in our region than McCain would have. In fact, the opposite is true. Obama has an affiliation with this region through his time spent in Indonesia as a child and growing up in the Pacific State of Hawaii. That connection can only benefit Australia and New Zealand - in addition to Asia. Obama, however, is likely to take a much harder line on countries such as Burma and will continue to press China on human rights and, economically, the downgrading of the Yuan. The problem area in the region will be Pakistan and Afghanistan. In Afghanistan we are likely to see an increased American presence as battalions are moved from Iraq and into the conflict with the Taliban. Obama will want to see relative peace in the country ahead of the next Presidential election. The death or capture of Bin Ladin will be a value-add. Pakistan will continue to spiral out of control, however, Obama is likely to increase the commitment to that country through increased military training and assistance in the frontier provinces. This is the right move as it will ‘kill two birds" with one stone. In other words, he manages Pakistan while fighting the war in Afghanistan. The relationship with Australia will continue to be fostered while the relationship between the US and New Zealand will move back into the fold. With the New Zealand election this weekend, the time has come for a thaw, whoever wins.

Africa: Obama will be the African President not only because of his background as a child but because of his affiliation with the continent. An African American President will be able to achieve more than any other President in terms of economic and social development on the continent. A hard line will be taken with Zimbabwe and in Kenya, Obama will have special reason to pull them back into line should the Kenyan Government recede to its previously corrupt ways. The United States may find itself in a position of being the dominant force in Africa, taking the mantle from South Africa. As events unfold in South Africa, the ANC will split and a new party will rise from its ashes to compete in elections due in 2009. The United States will be there to fill the void until South African politics finds its balance again post apartheid.

Europe: Diplomacy will be restored and Europe will once again be partners with the United States. France and Germany will see a resurgence in belief of the American Century with its citizens having renewed confidence in world affairs. This will not, however, translate into more troops being sent by European NATO allies to the conflict in Afghanistan. European economies will ‘bounce" within days of the election result.

Russia: While respect for Russia's place in the world will be forthcoming by a new administration, Obama will be decisive when it comes to Russia. He can ill afford to be anything but. In time Russia will realise that they had a better friend in the Bush administration because the last thing Obama will want to do is back down from Russia in the eyes of the electorate. That said, there will be no other conflicts in the caucuses in the term ahead, although watch out for the signing of a new arms limitation treaty.

The Education President: Expects reforms to the No Child Left Behind Policy. Obama will be an education President for no other reason than he will want children from all walks of life to have the opportunity that education affords. Reform of the regulatory framework will occur, probably in term two - significantly there will be a rise in the focus of vocational and technical education in addition to a focus on re-skilling unemployed mature workers in preparation for new industries. The investment of more than $150 million under the Green Jobs Act is testament to this approach.

Trade Agreements and Immigration: While there will be no relaxation of general immigration rules, there will be a new policy to manage the current number of illegal Mexican nationals. From a political perspective an amnesty or relaxation of the rules for second generation non residents will provide much needed votes from an increasingly powerful voting bloc (the number of Latino voters now exceeds African Americans). Secondly it will be seen as a negotiated outcome with bordering countries to relax the rules. The fence will be gone. In terms of Trade, watch for renewed vigour with the Doha round and changes to NAFTA.

The election of Obama will see the rise of a new world order, not as we have known them, but as we will become to know them. A generation of people focused more on what brings us together as opposed to what drives us apart. Obama will be a President who will enshrine the philosophy of the "American Century" for no other reason than he appeals to tens of millions of people around the world. The United States has been missing from the table the last four years. Other countries such as Russia have taken advantage of this as has the European Union and South American countries. All of them will be waiting in anticipation to see just how the first 100 days of the Obama administration will unfold. Nothing from Obama has been left to chance.

So, the next American President is Barrack Obama and history will tell us he was the right choice for these times. He will usher in a period of stability in world affairs. History, however will judge him for the things he will be unable to do rather than those that he has done. History can be a cruel beast.

As for John McCain - history will tell us that McCain was the President the United States could have had, but the timing was wrong. McCain would have run a similar agenda to Obama because more drew them together than set them apart. McCain will be an elder statesmen of American politics, respected by both sides.

As for Palin? Palin will be an aboration. Someone else will come along and Palin will be nothing more than an interesting bi line of historical insignificance, as cruel as that seems.

Matthew Tukaki is Director of SansGov and leads the organizations government policy, advisory and services practice. Matthew is the former General Manager of Education at IT&T Education, former Head of the review into Knowledge and Information Management Strategies at both the Joint House Department of the Parliament of Australia and the Australian Communications Authority, former Head of Government, Knowledge Management and Education at Dattatech Samsung SDS and former Chairman of both the National Skills for Schools program and the Government Policy Advisory Panel.