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Post-electoral musical chairs
patrickcallioni | August 31, 2010It is now more than a week since the election and negotiations proceed to determine who will form the next government; noting that we already have a government, albeit in caretaker mode.
Incumbency could become very significant in this complicated post-electoral game of musical chairs, as Jack Waterford explained in The Canberra Times recently. Waterford’s point was that if Julia Gillard were to go to Government House now and sought a fresh appointment as PM, she would get it, on the grounds that until a no-confidence vote in the House of Representatives went against her, she is entitled to assume that she the confidence of the House.
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Reflections on the election campaign
patrickcallioni | August 23, 2010If we want to move away from the politics of the lowest common denominator, let us start from the right place.
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The Coalition and Broadband
patrickcallioni | August 17, 2010Australia needs a real plan to invest in a National Broadband Network (NBN) with fibre optic and wireless phases.
There they go again. They were in government for thirteen years and failed to understand the importance of high speed broadband for social and economic development and well-being – and they still don’t get it, it seems.
The “plan” announced by Mr Abbott last week, through proxies, is a mishmash of half-baked notions, not a plan.
I advised Senator Alston almost a decade ago that if Australia did not invest in broadband and allowed Telstra to persist with its anti-competitive behaviour we would be at risk of becoming a third-world country. Anyone who travels to Europe, North America or even Asia will know that I was right.
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Journalists and history
patrickcallioni | August 9, 2010At election time, do not rely on anything you may read in newspapers like The Daily Telegraph and, increasingly, The Australian – you will almost certainly be misled, either through journalistic ignorance or by clever manipulation.
While there are some excellent journalists in Australia, such as Jack Waterford, for example, the level of competence and professionalism in Australia is generally poor. This means that three things are guaranteed at election time. First, the typical journalist will display no more than a tenuous grasp of the English language; second, there will be no historical perspective provided with any analysis of issues; and third, a total ignorance of statistics will be displayed in any discussion of opinion polls. I will save the first matter for another day, but let me expand on the next two critical observations.
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Open letter to the G20 leaders
patrickcallioni | June 28, 2010Markets make money whether the economy is going up or down – it is only the rest who stand to lose.It is apparent that the global economy is still very fragile and that a return to recession (or worse) is still possible. This is the worst possible time for governments in developed economies to cut public expenditure.Yes, it is true that the ratio of government debt to GDP is too high in some countries (but not Germany, so why are they cutting expenditure?) and that long term stability demands something be done to reduce that ratio. However, as with any ratio, there are two ways of reducing this one, not just one. We can cut expenditure or increase GDP.
Market Fever Index 2010 – and some thoughts on the mining industry
patrickcallioni | May 5, 2010In April, perhaps because of Easter or perhaps because the smart money is now moving towards real estate, the index fell back to cover only 908 items, which gives us a value of just under 47. The new, broader index gave us a total of 374,000 hits for the week in question, which became our baseline or 100. This month, I decided to use only the broader index, because there has been too much fluctuation in the results from the other sample. The number of hits has risen to 972,000 – which is a big change. The Easter week must really have had an impact.
I am beginning to think that we really need something a little more sophisticated to make this work. Does anyone have any suggestions?
The Market Fever Index, issue 4
patrickcallioni | April 5, 2010Last month, the index stood at 122 (2273 items, with 2065 in the previous month and 1939 items originally). This month, perhaps because of Easter or perhaps because the smart money is now moving towards real estate, the index fell back to cover only 908 items, which gives us a value of just under 47.
To see if there is anything real going on, I will now also use a broader sample, changing the search to encompass the whole world. This search produces a total of 374,000 hits for the week in question, which now becomes our baseline or 100.
Let’s see what happens next month, with both series.
Meanwhile, my new book is out. Here is what Amazon says about Waves of Change: Managing Global Trends in the Financial Services Industry.
The Market Fever Index – issue 3
patrickcallioni | March 7, 2010First, allow me to apologise for the delay in publishing this. I have been pondering comments I have received in response to previous blog entries and, in particular, to this comment:
The Market Fever Index: Part 2
patrickcallioni | February 5, 2010Last month I published the first iteration of the Market Fever Index (MFI).In my forthcoming book, Waves of Change: Managing Global Trends in the Financial Services Industry, due out in May 2010, I suggest that it would be useful for investors, especially unsophisticated investors, to have access to a market fever index.My proposal is based on the same logic that underpins bushfire warnings: to let people know that while they are free to invest as they please, they ought to be aware of the risk that is inherent in the environment.It is almost impossible for retail i
Heading for another great recession?
patrickcallioni | January 28, 2010As I predicted in earlier posts, governments are reacting to the financial crisis by indulging in populist reforms that are intended to punish the culprits – banks and financial institutions – and to stop them from doing again whatever they did that caused the US and global economies to crash in 2008-9. The form and character of what President Obama has said he wants to do – if Congress allows him to do it – is a typical example (this is what the President said, in part):
The market fever index
patrickcallioni | January 7, 2010In my forthcoming book, Waves of Change: Managing Global Trends in the Financial Services Industry, due out in May 2010, I suggest that it would be useful for investors, especially unsophisticated investors, to have access to a market fever index.My proposal is based on the same logic that underpins bushfire warnings: to let people know that while they are free to invest as they please, they ought to be aware of the risk that is inherent in the environment. It is almost impossible for retail investors to have any such awareness as things stand. I am hypothesising that a useful indicator of risk would be the number of items that appear on the World Wide Web that refer to activity in the global financial markets.
Balancing Privacy and Convenience
patrickcallioni | October 6, 2009On 14 September 2009, the Minister for Human Services, Chris Bowen MP, released a discussion paper to engage with industry on government payment and information services.
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Chippendale NSW 2008