Of heroes and monsters
With the carbon tax Gillard has shown her political stripes as a strategist; much like Howard did with the GST.
Recently I wrote about strategists and tacticians in Australian politics, as we seek to understand what makes our leaders tick, with a special focus on that most complex of people, Tony Abbott.
In discussing the Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, I was non-committal. I observed that early signs in 2011 were good, but that we should wait and see what those early signs might mean in the longer term. Well, we did not have to wait long, did we?
The announcement that the Government would introduce a carbon tax may be the evidence needed to formulate a firmer prognostication of how Julia Gillard’s prime ministership is likely to turn out. When I heard the announcement and saw the PM in action, I thought that the ghost of John Howard PM had woken and was once again pulling the strings, with the puppets on the stage reacting as one might expect.
When Howard returned to the leadership of the Opposition in 1995, he said that the GST would never be Liberal party policy. A commitment that was integral to his election winning strategy in 1996.
A few years later, in 1998, circumstances had changed and the GST was something we had to have, to safeguard the future of the country and Howard managed to bring it in, with the help of the Australian Democrats, just as Gillard will have to rely on the Greens to bring in the carbon tax.
After the election, the then Opposition Leader, Kim Beazley, railed against the GST and claimed Howard had no mandate to introduce it. Which is true, since in the 1998 election, Labor got more votes than the Coalition (51 to 49 per cent), though the latter won more seats.
Interestingly, I do not recall Tony Abbott indicating that this lack of mandate was a problem, though he is now calling loudly and often for a fresh election so that the Prime Minister can get a mandate – or not – for her carbon tax.
I do recall that the argument by the Coalition was that they had won the election and that, in a Parliamentary democracy, all that is needed is for legislation to be passed by both houses for it to become law, mandate or not. I think Mr Abbott may wish to reflect on that point.
I also remember that Labor claimed, as Tony Abbott is claiming now, that this new big tax on everything would destroy civilisation as we know it, while the Government asserted that opponents of the GST did not understand basic economics. It has not taken long for the present debate to assume this Manichean form, has it?
But then, that is what our system of government is all about, painting minor differences of view as grand philosophical chasms, as matters of life and death. This is necessary, otherwise we would all soon see that Australians are united by a very middle class view of the world and divided by very little. And a good thing this is too, because it is what gives our society the stability and continuity without which prosperity is not possible.
I thought that Kevin Rudd’s ETS was too complicated and gave too much of our money to polluters. In my view, a carbon tax is a simpler and a fairer mechanism that will shift us gradually away from our dependence on fossil fuels without having to give up our bread and our circuses and our big screen TVs and holidays overseas…actually without having to give up too much at all.
If we get it right, it may be that we can have our cake and eat it too. A well-crafted carbon tax may be the platform that gives us sustainable prosperity, just as the GST has given our taxation system a more solid foundation.
Whatever happens, by choosing this course of action, by nailing her political future to the mast, Julia Gillard has thrown her lot in with the strategists. But I am afraid that the real Tony Abbott continues to hide behind a tactical screen that may show him to be the naked contender very soon, naked of policy and stripped of credibility as a leader for the long term.
Tony Abbott should be mindful that a rival like Peter Costello, lacking the courage to challenge and fail and to challenge again, comes along only once in a generation. Malcolm Turnbull and Andrew Robb are patient, intelligent, determined and Machiavellian – a dangerous combination. If Abbott wants to beat them, he will need to play them at their own game.
My suggestion to Mr Abbott is to craft a long term strategy for the Opposition that seeks to harness technology and the economy to the public good, as Bob Menzies did in the 1950s and 1960s and as John Howard, like him or loathe him, did in the 1990s. Otherwise, his tenure of office is likely to be brief, as the challengers are gathering their votes now.
Please Mr Abbott, don’t oppose the NBN, propose your own strategy to exploit once it is constructed, a strategy aligned with Liberal values of entrepreneurship and competition. Do not oppose the carbon tax, propose your own strategy to maximise job and wealth creation that will flow from the innovation that the tax will spark. Propose your own nation building strategy, a strategy that will harness the best our people have to offer and that makes use of the almost limitless possibility offered to us by the willingness of so many people to come to live here, with us.
Give the people the message that our future will be bright if we make it so by lighting the way with good ideas and with good deeds, as we have done before. Spurn those who would have us believe that we can build a better future by denying the social inclusiveness, acceptance of others and tolerance of difference that have made this country great. Most of all, appeal to the best in us, rather than the worst and, please, please, ditch Scott Morrison. He makes Phil Ruddock look good.
Patrick Callioni is a former senior public servant, with the Queensland and Australian Governments, and is now the Senior Executive Advisor, Domestic and International Markets, with the Sustain Group www.sustaingroup.net. His books Compliance and Regulation in the Financial Services Industry & Waves of Change: Managing Global Trends in the Financial Services Industry are available at Amazon
