Radical strategy to save Planet: Put Labor Last

With the looming prospect of a failed 2010 Cancun Climate Summit, how do we give politicians a cold, hard slap in the face?

In the week before the failed 2009 Copenhagen Climate Summit, top US climate scientist Dr James Hansen, Director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York and author of “Storms of My Grandchildren” was asked, “Is there any real chance of averting the climate crisis?”

Dr Hansen  commenced his response as follows: “Absolutely. It is possible – if we give politicians a cold, hard slap in the face. The fraudulence of the Copenhagen approach – "goals" for emission reductions, "offsets" that render ironclad goals almost meaningless, the ineffectual "cap-and-trade" mechanism – must be exposed. We must rebel against such politics as usual.

Science reveals that climate is close to tipping points. It is a dead certainty that continued high emissions will create a chaotic dynamic situation for young people, with deteriorating climate conditions out of their control ” (see “Copenhagen Summit: Is there any real chance of averting the climate crisis?”, Guardian, November 2009).

But with the looming prospect of a failed 2010 Cancun Climate Summit, how do we “give politicians a cold, hard slap in the face?”

Below I propose a radical, new, counter-intuitive strategy whereby pro-environment Australians – and indeed, by extension, pro-enviromentalists all around the world – can radically alter 2-Major Party politics and achieve major, requisite action of climate change, “the greatest moral challenge of out time” according to former Australian PM Kevin Rudd.

Most Australian Greens voters have a dangerously flawed electoral strategy of giving their second preference to pro-fossil fuel Labor which is just as bad in practice as the pro-fossil fuel Liberal-National Party Coalition when it comes to climate change inaction. Responsible pro-Humanity, pro-Biosphere Australian voters must vote 1 Green and Put Labor Last until Labor agrees to major action on climate change, this involving at the very least a firm commitment to cessation of CO2 emissions by 2020 and the corollary of 100% renewable energy by 2020.

Unfortunately the heart-rather-than-head Green strategy of giving the second preference to Labor has so far only had the consequence of successive, do-nothing Federal Labor Governments. Do the Greens propose to indefinitely  continue returning do-nothing, pro-fossil fuel Labor Governments?

Australia has a compulsory preferential voting system in which voters must list their order of preference for all candidates. Politics is dominated by the 2 major groups, the pro-war, pro-fossil fuels Liberal-National Party Coalition (the Libs) and the pro-war, pro-fossil fuels Labor Party (the Labs) together with minor parties of which the most important is the Greens. If there is no party with 50% of more of the vote, the preferences of the minor parties are successively allocated.

In the 2010 Federal elections the primary vote (first preference) was roughly 38% (Labor), 34% (Coalition), 12% (Greens) and 6% (others). With about 85% of Greens second preferences going to Labor, the final 2-party preferred vote was 50.1% (Labor) and 49.9% (Coalition), source Wikipedia.

In the wash-up Labor (72 seats) was able to form a barely manageable Minority Government with the help of 1 Green, 1 Green-ish independent and 2 conservative rural independents (a total of 76 seats) versus the Coalition (72 seats plus support from 2 further independents for a total of 74 seats).

The Greens are the kingmakers. Except for extremely safe Labor seats, Labor can only win seats and thence form Government with the help of Greens preferences.

However the pro-Planet voting strategy of most Green voters (85% of second preferences to Labor) is fatally flawed because in practice the pro-war, pro-fossil fuels Labs are just as ineffective on climate change as the pro-war, pro-fossil fuels Libs. Thus Australia’s Domestic plus Exported greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution was over 4% greater in 2009-2010 under a Labor Government than that under a Coalition Government in 2006-2007. Further, both the Libs and the Labs have the same devastatingly ineffective GHG pollution policy of "5% off 2000 GHG pollution by 2020".

Current Green voter preference strategy simply means that they reject a Coalition Government in favor of support for the Australian Labor Party (ALP) which is just as bad as the Liberal-National Party to the point that the ALP has been described quite accurately as "Another Liberal Party".

What can pro-Planet voters do?

In short, pro-Planet voters must vote 1 Greens and Put Labor Last until Labor agrees to requisite massive action on man-made climate change.

This is a win-win strategy because (a) if Labor refuses to act properly then it will be punished by exclusion from government, noting that currently the Labs are just as bad as the Libs in relation to climate change action and (b) if Labor decides to act responsibly with requisite massive action on man-made climate change it will be returned to government.

Note that this argument assumes that, despite its current appalling inaction on climate change, traditionally more reformist and more progressive Labor is more likely than the Libs to ultimately take requisite action on climate change. Further, Green voter support for Labor will require massive action by Labor on climate change – whether you drive over the cliff at 1 kph or at 100 kph the end result is the same.

What must Labor commit to in order to secure second preference from Green voters?

Top climate scientist Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany, and Chief Government Advisor on Climate and Related Issues during Germany’s EU Council Presidency and G8 Presidency,  says that the World must achieve zero (0) carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 2050 if it is to have a 67% chance of avoiding a catastrophic 2 degree C temperature rise. Not very good odds: would you board a plane if it had a 33% chance of crashing?

Further, "all men are created equal" means that there must be equal GHG pollution per capita over the next 40 years for all people. This means that world-leading per capita GHG polluters such as the US, Canada and Australia must cease CO2 pollution by 2020 (for a detailed analysis see the Report Beyond Zero Emissions Zero carbon Australia by 2020, here and here).

Responsible voters in Australia who care for species diversity, Humanity, the Biosphere, children, grandchildren and intergenerational equity must vote 1 Green and Put Labor Last until Labor at the very least commits to cessation of CO2 emissions by 2020 and the corollary of 100% renewable energy by 2020 (eminently achievable according to the acclaimed BZE ZCA 2020 Report). Indeed anything less will mean that Green voters will themselves be betraying Humanity and the Biosphere.

Of course reaching Zero Emissions is just the beginning. Top scientists, including the UK Royal Society working Group on Coral, say that we must urgently return the atmospheric CO2 concentration from the current damaging 392 parts per million (ppm) for a safe and sustainable environment for all peoples and all species, see (300.org).

For the sake of Australia and the Planet please tell everyone you can how we can radically alter do-nothing, lobbyist-beholden, 2-Major Party politics in Australia and indeed in the other Western Democracies that are all still fiddling while the Planet burns.