The need for climate change adaptation
The current heatwave is just one sign of increasing climate change with weather becoming more extreme. Professor Kevin Parton argues that instead of concentrating on overcoming disasters when they occur, we need to learn to respond more effectively in future.
The current extreme heatwave conditions across southern Australia should be no surprise. As a species we seem to have made the decision to continue along the path of climate change. This is clear from the muted policy response to the emission of greenhouse gases. Two predicted consequences of this climate change are that weather will become more extreme and that there will be more instances of extreme weather. This is the “new normal”.
So why should we be so surprised when we are in the middle of extreme weather such as the current heatwave?
In a world of increasing climate change, people should expect more heat, more cold, more wet, more dry, more wind, more cyclones, more bushfires, and more floods; and so we should be prepared for these events. Since 1970, the probability across the globe of being affected by an extreme climate event has more than doubled.
In the Philippines, where most of my recent research has been located, the risk of an extreme weather impact has increased from just over 2,000 per 100,000 population in 2008, to more than 5,000 (or 5%) in 2015; this despite the fact that both an increase in incomes and improved government regulations have acted to reduce the climate change impacts.
However, while the risks are increasing, adaptation to climate change is not. A review of climate change adaptation measures in the advanced nations (where you would expect most adaptation to take place) shows that there is limited evidence of adaptation. What climate change adaptation is in these places seems to be restricted to climate sensitive sectors like transport and infrastructure, and at the city-level (but facilitated by central government). Although some specific services do plan well for weather extremes (for example health services in Adelaide), much more could be done.
In contrast to this poor response in the area of climate change adaptation, our approach to overcoming disasters when they occur seems to be improving steadily. This suggests that we may need to integrate the areas of disaster risk reduction (where some advances are being made) with climate change adaptation (where there is little progress).
However, as a species we still seem to live from crisis to crisis. While response to disasters is good, once we get through a disaster, we seem to have a memory loss about it, and just go back to our normal lives. We need to better learn the lessons from the current extreme circumstances (whatever they are) and establish systems to respond more effectively in future. This method of using disaster risk reduction to inform climate change adaptation is a promising way to get adaptation moving forward and building resilience.
While we must do what we can to alleviate the suffering of so many affected by the current heatwave conditions, we must also embed an adapting way of thinking into our planning for future climate change. Resilience will come from such planning for extreme weather. This is the kernel of successful climate change adaptation. Such adaptation will stand us in good stead to help reduce human suffering in the long term.
Professor Kevin Parton is a Research Professor with the Institute for Land, Water and Society at Charles Sturt University. He has over 37 years of teaching, research, research management and research training experience, including universities, Australian and Canadian Government agencies and international research organisations. He has completed research projects in a number of countries including the EU, Australian, Canada, Ethiopia, Kenya, China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, Thailand, and Papua New Guinea. He has published over 100 internationally refereed journal articles and received over $1.5 million in competitive grant funding. As Director of the Centre for Health Research and Development, University of New England, he was instrumental in the introduction of the professional doctorate in health services management. Research interests include both agricultural and health economics. Current major research interests are in the economics of climate change policy, and social and health aspects of adaptation to climate change.
