A new era of wildfires

The intensification of wildfires, driven by climate change, drought, and extreme weather, poses a growing threat to urban areas worldwide. To reduce the devastating impact, proactive measures in urban planning, land management, and public education must be combined with urgent global action on climate change.
Los Angeles is grappling with devastating wildfires that have destroyed over 10,000 homes, capturing global attention. While the loss of celebrity homes has made headlines, the true focus lies in the fires’ proximity to the city itself, threating urban neighbourhoods. The dramatic footage flooding our screens feel more like scenes from a Hollywood blockbuster than real life.
Many in Australia are trying to make sense of these fires and wondering if this could happen to our cities.
Why has it happened?
LA fires are being driven by two main factors: extreme drought and the Santa Ana winds. According to the US National Integrated Drought Information System, Los Angeles has been experiencing record or near-record dryness since the start of October 2024. Drought conditions not only dry out the fuels within native vegetation, but as a result they connect large areas of the landscape, allowing wildfires to spread with few if any barriers that may slow or stop the fire.
Santa Ana winds are created from high air pressure systems over the deserts in southwestern US, interacting with low-pressure systems over the Californian coasts. These extremely dry and often hot winds move from the desert down to the coast, exacerbating drought conditions. They can reach speeds of over 100 kph and, even in the absence of fires, are capable of causing significant destruction.
Add an ignition to a dry landscape with hot, dry winds and you have the perfect recipe for a fast-moving fire. While speculation continues about the cause of these fires, no official statement has been released to date.
Fast moving fires driven by wind are those that are most likely to result in houses being burnt. House loss in wildfire-prone areas can occur through various mechanisms. The most obvious is contact from wildfire flames or intense heat. Embers or firebrands can land on, in, or under the structure and cause ignition. Finally, the fire can spread from an adjacent burning structure, often termed house-to-house transmission, like a disease. In the absence of detailed information, it is likely that houses have been lost in the LA fires due to at least one of these processes.
Will this happen elsewhere?
LA has many unique characteristics, but these destructive fires are not limited to Southern California; they have also occurred elsewhere in the world, including recent examples in Australia, Canada, Portugal, Spain, Chile, Brazil, and Greece.
In Australia, we only have to look back to the Black Summer season in 2019/2020 to find our most recent analogue. During this season, 19.5 million hectares of vegetation were burnt, and more than 3,000 houses destroyed. 34 lives were lost in the fires, and a further 457 fatalities were recorded due to smoke-related health issues. These fires were driven by record drought, particularly in eastern Australia, combined with the occurrence of hot, dry, and windy weather conditions.
Australia has a long history of fires occurring during droughts on hot, dry, and windy days. The Black Saturday fires in February 2009 resulted in 173 people losing their lives and more than 3,500 houses being destroyed across Victoria in a single afternoon. In Canberra in 2003, several fires swept into the outskirts of the nation’s capital, destroying approximately 500 houses. The Ash Wednesday fires of February 1983 resulted in 75 people being killed and approximately 3,500 houses destroyed.
There is no doubt that these fires are part of a global trend of the intensification of fire patterns, that are undoubtedly driven by global climatic change. In fire-prone landscapes, fires are becoming larger, burning more frequently, and are more difficult to control. Fires are also appearing in regions that historically have not known fire and therefore currently lack the experience to manage such events—although they are rapidly adapting.
What can be done?
It is often said that disaster creates opportunity, but sadly, it also creates opportunists pushing their own agenda. Many are proposing simple solutions to fix these complex and potentially wicked problems, but none of these are likely to work.
The most obvious step to address destructive fires and the intensification of global fire regimes is tackling climate change in a meaningful way. The recent State of Wildfires 2023-2024 report found that achieving the Paris targets will go a long way to reversing recent changes in fire patterns. However, fire is a natural part of many landscapes, and we must acknowledge that it will never disappear.
There are a wide range of actions that can be taken to reduce risk of loss, many of which are applicable globally. Urban planning provides opportunities for reducing the exposure of houses to wildfires. This approach is challenging as people often prefer to live in or near native vegetation or areas with scenic views, such as Malibu, often unaware or unconcerned about the risks from fires. Future planning could prevent or limit building in these areas. However, we must also contend with the legacy of past decisions that have resulted in significant numbers of houses located in at-risk areas.
Land management decisions that alter fuel load or vegetation structure can, at times, be useful in protecting critical assets such as water reservoirs and houses. For example, placing fuel treatment zones adjacent to these areas can alter fire behaviour and reduce the chance of flames, heat or embers impacting properties. Strategic fuel breaks, widely used in California, and increasingly considered as a mitigating mechanism for fighting fires in Australia, are another valuable tool. These are areas cleared of combustible materials and provide fire suppression crews with opportunities to control fires under certain conditions.
Fire suppression—including the use of fire trucks, helicopters, and other aircraft—plays a critical role in the early phases of fire development and in the protection of key human and environmental assets. However, under extreme weather, such as evident in the Santa Ana winds, fire suppression efforts are limited due to the erratic fire behaviour and the potential risks faced by suppression crews. Suppression crews play important roles in containing the fires under more mild weather conditions, too. However, in some cases fires will simply be too large and too dangerous to suppress, therefore it is critical we are proactive, not just reactive, in managing risks.
All these actions can work together to reduce risk of loss, but they cannot eliminate the risk entirely. Furthermore, none of these actions alone offer a simple solution to the problem.
Perhaps the greatest tool fire agencies have is engaging with the public to prepare for fires. Educating the public about the risks, the necessary actions to take, and how to safely evacuate during fire saves countless lives—both of the public and fire crews. Losing a home to wildfire is considered one of the most traumatic events a person can experience. Houses can be rebuilt, but lives cannot be replaced.
Sadly, without action on climate change the future is looking grim: more fires will occur, and more houses will be lost. We as a society need to start planning for fires that are likely to occur in the next fifty years if we want to reduce the impact on the things we value most. We face serious and difficult questions about how to create safe, liveable environments. If we fail to act now, we are locking in a future marked by devastating fires, the loss of human values, and the degradation of our natural environments.
This article was published by The Australian Institute for International Affairs.

Associate Professor Trent Penman is a bushfire risk modeller at Melbourne University. He focuses on optimising management expenditure to reduce the risk of fire effects on people, property and the environment.