Making good policy

This week I am writing about a topic that should concern us all – how to make good policy. This is necessary because, increasingly, governments and public servants seem to forget how to do this, to our detriment. A classic case in point is road safety. The mantra from the police and politicians alike is that speed kills and if we all drive more slowly the road toll will fall.

Driven by this simplistic approach, the solutions deployed by the authorities are – more speed cameras, more police with radar guns, and slower speed limits – sometimes as low as 70 kmh on good highways. What we are then told is: look, it works, because the road toll is falling and what we need is even more of these same solutions and all will be well. How wrong they are – and they should know better.

The argument is based on a fallacious premise, which itself is based on an observed correlation between average speed by motorists and the incidence of road deaths and accidents in Australia. Now, as any educated person should know, correlation does not imply causation. In other words, it is possible for two factors to be related in some way in their behaviour without one being the cause of the other. For example, we all drink water and we all die, but it is not true, generally-speaking, that drinking water caused death. Similarly, we all drive at a speed greater than 0 kmh and we are all at risk of suffering a car accident, but it cannot be said, without proof that driving at a speed greater than 0 kmh causes car accidents. I don’t know about you, but I have never seen such proof. All I have seen and heard is people asserting that the faster you go the more likely it is that you will have an accident and that the consequences of the accident will be more significant. This is based on the circular argument that because we are obliged by law to drive more slowly, we have fewer accidents and we have fewer accidents because we are obliged by law to drive more slowly.

Unfortunately, the causes of the many events that make up road toll statistics are not so simply explained. Each accident is unique and has many causes and the road toll as a whole has many causes – it is multi-factorial. This is not an exclusive list, but here we go: skill of the driver, condition of the driver, other drivers or road users – especially trucks, conditions of the road, the weather, the safety of the vehicle – passive and active, the weather, chance and, yes, speed, are all factors which can play a part in causing a road accident. I am sure that you could add to this list, if you think about it.

Do you know that in the UK, where speed limits are significantly higher and the permitted level of blood alcohol is also higher, accident rates are significantly lower than in Australia?

In 2007, among the OECD nations for which 2007 data were available, Australia had:

• the 14th lowest rate out of 29 nations in terms of annual road deaths per population;

• the 9th lowest rate out of 23 nations in terms of annual road deaths per registered vehicle;

• the 6th lowest rate out of 15 nations in terms of annual road deaths per vehicle kilometres travelled.

In every one of these comparisons, the UK performed significantly better, though the difference is smallest in terms of annual road deaths per vehicle kilometres (see the source).

This observation alone destroys any argument that there is a causal connection between driving at higher speeds – and possibly with lower blood alcohol concentrations – and the road toll, though it remains true that, generally, the faster you go the worse the consequences of any accident – that is simple physics. Of course, I am not saying that speed is not relevant, but I am saying that focusing on speed alone is evidence of lazy thinking by politicians and those who advise them, associated with a desire for revenue raising and for an easy target at which to aim. 

Allow me to hypothesise why we do worse than the UK. First, we drive much longer distances and more often. In the UK there is much greater reliance on train transport than in Australia for intercity travel. Second, we have too many trucks on the roads – carrying freight on trucks is expensive for taxpayers who pay for the roads and subsidise truckies, unsafe for truckies and for us, and bad for the environment. Freight should be on trains and ships. Third, the skill of drivers is relevant. I have driven in many countries and I would have to say that Australian drivers, on average, are not on par with European drivers. Too many drivers ignore fundamental rules, such as staying on their side of the road, or not passing if it’s not safe.( By the way, on two lane highways, it is absurd and dangerous to restrict overtaking vehicles to the speed limit.) It should be much harder to obtain a driver’s licence and to keep it. Fourth, our police forces indulge in lazy thinking. Catching bad or poor drivers who put us and themselves at risk is difficult; it is much easier to point a radar gun or to collect the film from a speed camera and then to claim success by relying on patently false premises. It is time that the police did their job, which is to police driving, not speed. Fifth, the quality of our cars is improving – which is one of the real reasons why the road toll has been falling, but we need to do more, especially for younger drivers, who generally start their driving lives in the cheapest and therefore least safe cars on the market. Instead of stopping young folk from driving fast cars, we should extend their probation to two years and we should ensure that they drive better cars.

So, how do we make better road safety policy? The recipe is simple. Understand that the causes of the road toll are many. Stay away from simple nostrums and populist measures. Gather evidence on those causes that are causing the greatest impact and develop an array of responses capable of dealing with those issues. Observe the impact of those measures and make refinements as necessary. Use the police to police drivers and not speed. Teach people to drive well, reward good driving – perhaps with a discount on registration – and punish bad drivers, including those who drive at a speed inappropriate to their skills or to the conditions of the road. Get freight off trucks and into more efficient and safer forms of transport. Get people out of cars and into safer, faster and environmentally preferable forms of transport, such as trains. Mix all these ingredients together carefully and we may finally have as much impact on the road toll as we could and should. Over to you, road and transport ministers.

Patrick Callioni is a former senior public servant, with the Queensland and Australian Governments, and is now the Managing Director of consulting company, Enterprise Intelligence Pty Ltd, which specialises in helping business to do business with government and vice-versa. www.enterpriseintelligence.net.au.