Open letter to the G20 leaders
Yes, it is true that the ratio of government debt to GDP is too high in some countries (but not Germany, so why are they cutting expenditure?) and that long term stability demands something be done to reduce that ratio. However, as with any ratio, there are two ways of reducing this one, not just one. We can cut expenditure or increase GDP.
It so happens that European governments are all choosing the one that does not suit our times, spooked and bullied by the financial markets. The risk now, as in the 1930s, is that winding back public expenditure will depress demand and hurt confidence, perhaps fatally. Allow me to propose an alternative.
My alternative is simple, predicated on these assumptions. First, the British Pound (especially the Pound!!), the Euro and the Yen are overvalued. This creates a false feeling of wealth in the economies that own those currencies.
That false feeling of wealth drives consumers to travel abroad, to buy expensive imported goods and to take on too much debt. For example, British expats now have truckloads of groceries sent to them in Spain because the exchange rate is so favourable to them! Is this not insane? Also, of course, overvalued currencies damage the potential for export, especially to developing economies. Second, money spent to buy gold instantly becomes dead money, money that is no longer available to circulate in the economy and to create more value. So, gold is a deadly substance, as deadly to the global economy as Kryptonite is to Superman. To make matters worse, at the moment we are experiencing a gold bubble, with the price of gold going up and up, sucking in more and more money from concerned investors.
Relying on these assumptions, what I propose is this:
- G20 central banks should take rapid, coordinated steps to bring about an orderly devaluation of the Pound, the Euro and the Yen. Central banks should start selling those currencies and should buy currencies from countries such as Brazil, for example. The devaluation will make exports cheaper and will encourage people to vacation at home and to start considering how to live more modestly. At the same time, people in countries like Brazil will have greater capacity to purchase the goods that Europe and Japan will try to sell them. This would replace a vicious cycle with a virtuous one. By the way, exceptional times require exceptional measures, so central banks should be prepared to force a devaluation, if necessary, by government fiat.
- G20 central banks should immediately sell all their gold holdings (estimated at around 30,000 tonnes) and undertake not to buy any more gold. This will burst the gold bubble and force dead money – money tied up in useless bars of yellow metal – to find another, more productive home. The US Gold Reserve alone is just over 8,000 tonnes – which is about 6% of the total gold ever mined. It is worth about $100 billion or 1.5% of the US national debt (see http://tiny.cc/atwzq). Because most gold in the world is in private hands, there will be a natural floor in the price of gold that will manifest itself when the bubble bursts. It is likely to be in the region of US$ 600-800 per ounce.
Remember that the markets make money whether the economy is going up or down – it is only the rest who stand to lose.
cat@globalaccesspartners.org
June 29, 2010 at 3:41 am
interesting
Hi Patrick, your article is particularly interesting and i was wondering how likely you think it is that the ideas you raised will actually happen and if they do, when.
It’s always eye-opening to read your thoughts.
regards
Catherine Kalish
CHCF
June 29, 2010 at 2:04 pm
considerations
Hello Mr. Calionni,
Very interesting idea, but have you considered the point of vew of countries as Brazil?
Brazil, China and in less proportions India became larger exporters of industrial goods. Actually, they are competidors with EU and USA for the same markets in most of the sectors. For instance, Embraer, the 3rd aircraft builder, is a brazilian company.
A weak Euro, Yen or Dollar means a proportionaly increase of the Brazilian Real, as you well pointed. Nevertheless, this is already hapenning with no efforts from the central banks. If you check the exchange rate between real and the main currencies the rise is notable. Obviously, domestic factors such as the high preferential rates bring more dollars, euros…
Other factor is Australia, Brazil, South Africa are great exporters of commodities what makes their currencies naturally stronger than other devloping countries (not inclunding Aus. in this cathegory), so how to manage the rise of the commodities prices that is already being a problem without a weak euro?
I don’t dare to speculate with the phenomena of converting gold into more aviable money. What I wonder is with the stratospheric rates practiced in devloping economies it’s not so sure that all of this money will be invested in the productive sector.
Best regards from Fortaleza, Brazil,
Carlos Henrique Fereira
patrickcallioni
July 1, 2010 at 7:32 am
Your comment
Thank you for your thoughtful comments. My hypothesis is that lifting the value of Brazil’s currency will enable its citizens to enjoy a higher purchasing power for their Reals. If that is so, then some of that additional wealth would be spent buying local products and services and some would be used to buy imported goods – perhaps from Europe or Japan. Of course, if more European goods are sold, then those same Europeans will be more likely to buy things like Embraer aircraft – by the way, we have some of those in Australia also. I know that this is happening – but I think it should happen quicker, because the fatser it happens the more trade is possible and the better off we all are.
The Chinese are trying to do this at the moment with the Yuan, aiming to lift the standard of living of a broader section of their population. Brazil has huge disparities between rich and poor that are not good for the economy or society and following the Chinese example would be a good thing to do.
Patrick
patrickcallioni
July 1, 2010 at 7:24 am
Your comment
Hi Catherine. Thank you for the feedback. I would be happy if what I write suffices to get us debating substance, rather than superficial fluff
Patrick
CHCF
July 2, 2010 at 12:00 am
Hi Patrick,
I do agree with
Hi Patrick,
I do agree with you, in "normal" ecnomic envirovment this would be the best solution.
Brazil has huge issues on his domestic market. It is not a simple economic problem of not enought GDP that couses the absourd gap between rich and poors. The tributary system is irrational, poors pay proportionaly more taxes than richers. The imported goods taxes are very high. This is susteined with the argument that the federation must to protect the national industries. Paradoxically the effect is reverse, actually there are very few of good and national factories, most of the big producers are multinational companies wich take advantages of the weak brazilian currency, low cost human resources, temporary taxes immunities gieven by the states, and the big domestic market. Unfortunately, we also have a big lobby from the primary sector, the profits from the agribusiness and mineral exporters are not converted to the productive sector as we would expect. A big part of it is drained out via the shares market. Anyway it pushs up the currency, so they press the central bank for interventions.
Infra structure is anoter big problem, we are a road based logistic country what is a contradiction to our continental dimensions, what contributes for higher costs.
My point here is, it’s not easy to convice a "fat" State as Brazil to cut out its taxes for improvement of the access of its citzens to goods. An I Phone (imported) costs about 1000€, a car, as the Toyota Corolla (produced in Brazil), costs 35.000€. A 150m2 apartament or house cost over 100.000€. The medium labor incoming is 460€(monthly). Those exemples shows how expensive living here can be.
A lot changed since the Real was adopted as currency 16 years ago. It has put an end on the vicious circle of hyperinflation, and promoted millions from under porvety line to just above it. By the other hand nothing was done to make the State more efficient, and the very important medium classes were smashed forced to go upper, or as happend to the marjority pushed down.
There is a lot to do to improve democracy, starting from accountability, and a lont to do woth investiments on education and a big reform on the administrative and taxes system.
World will have to get out of this without a brazilian effective contribution by now, and I dare to say the whole southamerica. What isn’t a big deal once the Federative Republic of Brazil share’s on the world trade market is of only 1,1% , accoding to the study Brasil Sustentável – Horizontes da Competitividade Industrial by FGV and Ernst & Young.
Apologies for my long comments, I like to fundament the arguments and pint the scenario, even so it’s far from enough to explain the whole thing.
I just want to contribute to the debate with a diffrent perspective.
Happy to contribute,
Carlos Ferreira
patrickcallioni
July 2, 2010 at 12:09 am
Your comment
Dear Carlos
again, your comments are most welcome, because this is why Open Forum was established, to encourage informed discussion and debate. Australia and New Zealand used to suffer from problems similar to those you described – high taxes and protectionism and a lopsided tax system. It took us twenty years to move on from there and there is still work to be done. So, do not despair.
Regards
Patrick
CHCF
July 2, 2010 at 12:29 am
Thanks
It’s good to feel welcome.
Hopefully, I’ll bring more contributions and eventualy others participants.
Congratulations for promoting and keeping this space.
There is a huge unexplored potencial of the digital tools.
Regards,
Carlos.
sally.rose
July 2, 2010 at 12:51 am
Welcome Carlos
Hi Carlos
It is great to have your participation at Open Forum. If you would ever like to share any of your ideas about the relationship between Brazil and Australia maybe you would write a blog for us? Any questions you can email me, srose (@) openforum.com.au
Best, Sally