An Australia-Pacific COP31?

For loyal followers of international climate politics, the potential of Australia’s successful bid to host the United Nations climate conference, COP31, is much like having the Olympics come to our shores.

The ‘Conference of the Parties’ or ‘COP’ conferences are the largest conferences on climate change and primarily involve the negotiations of the UN agreements which, in theory, govern international climate action.

These conferences are huge – some of the largest in recent memory have seen up to 100,000 people attend. Hence, it is not facetious to say that they are Olympics of climate change, with the host city often donning COP memorabilia all around town. At one COP I attended, delegates were eligible for discounts at local restaurants.

We will likely learn if Australia will host the 31st COP in 2026 at the Bonn negotiations being held on between the 16th and 26th of June. So what will COP31 entail for Australia?

Australia can set the agenda

Most prominently, the host country gets to choose the ‘action agenda’ of the COP. This is an opportunity for the host to focus the world’s attention on a specific aspect of climate change.

Australian ministers have pitched this as a ‘Pacific COP’ meaning the Pacific Islands should have a significant influence over this agenda.

The agendas on the table at the last few years, Conference of Parties have been about financing climate change mitigation, adaptation and ‘Loss and Damage’. Whilst all incredibly important to the region, I expect that the Pacific Islanders consulted will want more focus on mitigation and emissions reduction – both of which have been overshadowed the past few COPs by financing issues.

However, as ‘officially’  Australia would be the host of the Conference, the Australians will have the final say and I doubt they would be willing to put their own lack-luster mitigation in the international spotlight. But, I really hope to be proven wrong on this.

Criticism

Hosting such a global event will mean all eyes will be on us. The charm of our negotiators is not enough to negate the other reputation Australians have as ‘western lackies’ whose laggard negotiating on mitigation targets frequently follows the lead of US and UK negotiators. In fact, Australia is an annual winner of COP civil-society tradition ‘Fossil of the Day’. 

We will be the 3rd petro-state to host a COP in recent years. And much like our colleges in the UAE and Azerbaijan, hosting a climate conference will put our planet-destroying fossil fuel industry in the spotlight.

I also expect there will be a lot of chatter about how far away Australia is, with almost all international delegates having to endure large, long-haul flights to get here.

Internally, as outed Prime Ministerial candidate Peter Dutton has already attempted, I think we will see Australians critique the cost of the COP. The right of politics will likely follow Dutton in calling the conference unnecessary ‘madness’, and the left likely citing the ecological cost of the conference and the fact that the money that went into this conference could be better spent on mitigation and adaptation.

Whilst the UNFCCC is slow moving and there are many climate activists now boycotting the conferences, I remain excited for COP31 down under with the hope that Pacific voices will be platformed and international pressure leads to the reformation of our own petro-state.

Protest

Excitingly, an Australian COP will likely be the first in multiple years in which large street protests will occur.

Street protests organized by the local civil society used to be a mainstay of COPs. However, in recent years COPs have occurred in countries where protest is illegal or in cities that do not have a large civil society presence.

I am thus hopeful to see major  protests at an Australian COP that will reinvigorate the youth climate movement. Protests are a physical showing of civil society pressure on the negotiators to act progressively and bravely. For example, COP26 generated the largest protests in Glasgow’s history.  Given this will be a ‘Pacific COP’, I think we will see powerful images of Pacific advocates at the forefront of these protests, dressed in beautiful weaved and beaded Indigenous regalia and we will hear the sounds of fa’aumu ringing through the streets of Adelaide.

I do note however, there are increasing and concerning crackdowns on climate protests in Australia. In particular in South Australia where enormous fines were rushedly introduced to penalise protestors who block the free passage of public space.

Tourism

It has been announced that Adelaide, on the traditional land of the Kaurna people, will be the host city of COP31.

To me, this is an interesting location for a ‘Pacific COP’. Notwithstanding the fact that Adelaide does not touch the Pacific Ocean, it is also extremely far away from the Pacific Islands as compared to Brisbane, Cairns or even Sydney, and there is no significant Pacifika diaspora.

Given that universities are increasingly interested in participating-in and providing knowledge to the UNFCCC, an Adelaidian-COP will however mean the new ‘Adelaide University’ will be able to stake its claim as a new university.

Adelaide will also get to enjoy the tourism that a COP also brings. I expect the community of Kangaroo Island, who was ravaged by the Black Summer fires in 2019/2020, will benefit from the conference. The wineries too will get to show off their hospitality to international delegates. Perhaps even the ‘Tour Down Under’ bike race will also get a spruiking.

I do note that Adelaide’s recent experiences of drought and the climate related algal bloom will also provide a good backdrop to the urgency of climate negotiations.

An Australian-Flavored COP

Within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNFCCC, Australia has developed quite a reputation.

For almost the entirety of the UNFCCC’s history, Australia has been seen as one of the ‘bad guys’. Our reputation as a resource-state is well known. We, alongside the US, were the only ones to not originally ratify the UNFCCC’s Kyoto Climate Agreement. 

We have been known to cheat UNFCCC reporting by counting deforestation in our emissions accounting. It was even suggested by Former Fijian Prime Minister Frank Bainamarama that Australia was in the “coalition of the selfish” and that we should be kicked out of the UNFCCC.

However, after the 2022 election, Australia has attempted to rehabilitate this image.

The Department of Climate Change, Energy, Environment and Water (DCCEEW) organizes the Australia pavilions at COP conferences and they put on a good show. These spaces are some of the most beautiful at COP and are covered in Indigenous art. I have had international colleagues remark to me that it is the first time they have seen Aboriginal art and are often immensely impressed.

The Australians have also become famous for having the best coffee in the conference centers, having barista made coffees from Australian-roasted, net-zero beans that dazzle international delegates who do not come from cultures of such coffee-snobbery as our own.

Our Australian negotiators also represent us very well. The DCCEEW team are a passionate, well-organized, charming, and relatively young crew who stand out compared to their international colleagues. They have become known to international leaders in diversity and inclusion efforts and are also a funny bunch with some known for making efforts to sit behind the ’69’ flag at negotiating tables.

I thus expect that a COP down-under will follow suit. Years before the bid was approved, DCCEEW has had staff working to organize a then-hypothetical COP31. I expect the conference will be extremely professionally run, filled with beautiful art, state of the art facilities and good coffee. I just hope the Australians listen to the yearly critique COP delegates always have – that the food is too expensive and not vegetarian enough.