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Safeguarding Pacific tuna

| February 24, 2025

A transformative US$107 million grant has been secured by Conservation International and the Pacific Community (SPC) to support 14 Pacific Island countries to safeguard the economic and social benefits they receive from tuna against the impacts of climate change.

The historic Green Climate Fund (GCF) grant – which represents one of the largest climate funding grants ever to the Pacific region – has also attracted US$49.3 million in co-finance.  The total value of the programme is US$156.8 million and supports these countries in adapting to the impacts of ocean warming on the tuna stocks that underpin Pacific economies and enable tuna fisheries to make greater contributions to local food security.

The Cook Islands, Fiji, the Federated States of Micronesia, Kiribati, the Marshall Islands, Nauru, Niue, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, the Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu are custodians of one third of the world’s tuna catch and have managed this resource sustainably for decades.

“This landmark funding ensures our communities can continue relying on tuna as an essential source of food, revenue, and cultural value,” said Niue’s Minister for Natural Resources and Pacific Political Climate Change Champion on Gender, Equity and Social Inclusion, the Hon. Mona Ainu’u. “By adapting now, we can protect our people’s livelihoods and strengthen our resilience to climate change.”

Tuna is critical for both food and economic security in Small Island Developing States in the Pacific. Collectively, the tuna industry supports tens of thousands of jobs in the region and, for nine of these countries, fees associated with tuna-fishing access alone provide an average of 34% of government revenue. Due to declines in coastal fish production—caused by environmental changes such as coral bleaching—Pacific communities will increasingly need to depend on tuna to obtain the protein they require for food security.

Research by SPC and Conservation International shows an increasing risk that ocean warming will push tuna stocks away from the islands’ respective maritime zones and into international waters, potentially limiting the economic benefits that these 14 island nations currently derive from tuna fishing.

The research suggests that climate-driven tuna redistribution could reduce the average catch from Pacific Island waters by 10–30% by 2050, amounting to a collective loss of US$40–140 million annually. This economic loss represents 8–17% of government revenue per year for individual tuna-dependent economies.

“Since the 1970s, SPC has been working alongside our Pacific Island members to advance the scientific understanding of tuna fisheries and ensure their sustainable management. This ongoing work supports long-term sustainable tuna supplies, benefiting not only Pacific communities and families but also the entire world,” said Dr Stuart Minchin, Director-General of the Pacific Community (SPC).

The GCF-funded programme will provide the necessary tools to develop and support adaptations by Pacific Island nations that maintain the economic benefits they receive from tuna today. It is based on more than 50 years of science, research, and evidence-based decision-making led by Pacific Island countries and territories.

“Knowing when and to what extent ocean warming will change the distribution of tuna stocks will enable Pacific Island nations to identify solutions, together with the international community, to minimise the consequences of climate change on their economies,” said Johann Bell, Senior Director for Tuna Fisheries at Conservation International.

The GCF funding will also assist Pacific communities in using Fish Aggregating Devices (FADs) more frequently and establishing them as part of their national infrastructure supporting food security.

“Fish Aggregating Devices not only improve the chances that communities will catch more tuna, but they also reduce fuel use because boats do not have to keep following fast-moving tuna,” said Ian Bertram, SPC Principal Fisheries Adviser, Coastal Fisheries Management and Livelihoods. “They also improve safety at sea by providing known destinations for fishing trips and can broaden fisheries livelihood opportunities.”

“This is the world’s largest ocean climate adaptation initiative, and it started with science. Modelling by SPC indicates that tuna will move progressively into the high seas from Pacific nations’ waters. These countries are least responsible for climate change, and they have long stewarded this vital resource with great care. Now they have the financing to continue doing so,” said Jack Kittinger, Senior Vice President, Center for Sustainable Lands and Waters at Conservation International.

Further, Kittinger stated, “This investment will secure the region’s position as a leader in tuna fisheries management while highlighting the urgency of global climate action.”

Over the coming months, Pacific Island governments will finalise implementation plans for each activity supported by the GCF grant—activities designed to sustain tuna stocks and secure coastal livelihoods as the climate continues to change.

Dr Stuart Minchin, Director-General of SPC, also acknowledged the importance of a NZ$25 million grant to SPC from the New Zealand Government’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade to prepare the region for this project. The preparatory work undertaken over the last three years means the region has the infrastructure and capacity to commence implementing adaptation actions immediately.

Additionally, Dr Minchin acknowledged the US$1.9 million contribution from the Minderoo Foundation, which assisted Conservation International and SPC in preparing the GCF proposal.

The Regional Tuna Programme will be implemented by SPC with regional partners, including the Forum Fisheries Agency (FFA) and Australia’s Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO).

Henry Gonzalez, Chief Investment Officer of the Green Climate Fund (GCF), said: ‘Greater food security is a critical part of adaptation support to communities on the frontline of the climate crisis. GCF investment in this landmark regional project will positively impact communities across the Pacific region.’

Paul Hamer, Principal Fisheries Scientist (Stock Assessment and Modelling), Pacific Community (SPC), notes that “The most important tuna species for Pacific Island countries are skipjack, yellowfin, albacore and bigeye. These four tuna species support purse seine, longline and troll fisheries in the Western and Central Pacific Ocean that provide over 50% of the world’s tuna catch each year, that have incredible socio-economic importance for many Pacific Island countries, and contribute significantly to regional food security.

“Recent scientific assessments conducted by the Pacific Community’s ‘Oceanic Fisheries Programme’ and reported to the region’s tuna regional fisheries management organisation, the Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission (WCPFC), indicate that stocks of these four key tuna species are in good health and not subject to overfishing.”

“Tuna stocks in the western and central Pacific Ocean are currently healthy, in part due to management systems put in place by Pacific Island countries to control access, catch and effort in their waters, and through efforts at the WCPFC. Under recent fishing levels, all stocks are projected to remain in a healthy state.

“However, tuna are highly migratory, and their movement and distributions respond to oceanographic variability. A striking example of this dynamic is for skipjack tuna. Skipjack prefer the warmer tropical waters of the western and central equatorial Pacific. This region of warm surface water, referred to as the ‘Warm Pool’, expands to the east in El Niño conditions and contracts to the west in La Niña conditions, and the skipjack tuna stock does likewise.

“This means that the amount of skipjack in Pacific Island exclusive economic zones (EEZs), and therefore fisheries revenues and tuna related food security, can vary depending on the climate. Longer-term conditions influenced by climate change are predicted to result in greater and more persistent expansion of the warm pool to the east. In fact, the warm pool has already expanded in area greatly since the 1970s. This warm pool expansion, combined with other predictions of reduced prey productivity, presents significant long-term risk to fisheries revenue and food security for tropical Pacific Island countries.

“While the level of Illegal Unreported and Unregulated (IUU) fishing is limited by the regional monitoring control and surveillance infrastructure, there remain challenges, particularly on the high seas, which contribute to overfishing risks. Furthermore, Pacific Island countries can readily influence fishing levels in their waters and to a certain degree on the high seas through their negotiations as members of the WCPFC.

“Changes in tuna distribution, biology and productivity due to oceanographic changes are, however, not controllable, are not well understood and require further study. Failure to appropriately account for these changes in both fisheries assessments and management planning presents a major threat to the monitoring and sustainability of tuna stock and fisheries in the Pacific.”

“Despite the huge economic value of Pacific tuna fisheries, there remain many gaps in our understanding of those fisheries, the tuna’s biology and ecology, and the ecosystem in which tuna live. These knowledge gaps just increase exponentially as we consider their earlier life stages.

“While aspects such as growth and reproductive biology still require more information across the species’ ranges, a critical gap is research to understand what influences reproductive success or ‘stock replenishment’ of tuna. Greater understanding of the ecology of tuna larvae and small juveniles and the influence of oceanographic conditions on their survival is needed. This is logistically difficult and expensive work, requiring field sampling programs and high-resolution oceanographic data, which has been challenging to obtain for tropical regions using satellite imagery due to cloud cover, and the sheer size of the Pacific Ocean.

“It is remarkable how little field-based research and oceanographic observation has occurred in the warm pool region, the critical habitat for tropical tuna and a global heat engine. We need to start filling this critical gap if we are to develop more reliable, higher resolution models that can predict how changing climate and ocean conditions will influence tuna productivity and distribution in the Pacific.”

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