Safeguarding Australia

Throughout history, the social contract—the implicit pact between a government and its citizens—has been the foundation of governance, ensuring protection in exchange for loyalty and service. Historically, this pact emerged from ancient Mesopotamian proto-city-states, where rulers ensured security in return for taxes and service. Over centuries, it has underpinned systems of governance, shaping the fundamental responsibilities of the state.
In Australia today, this pact is under strain. The government’s failure to address critical vulnerabilities in defence, energy security, and economic resilience exposes the nation to unprecedented risks.
At the heart of the social contract lies the obligation to protect the nation against external threats. Yet Australia’s defence posture appears ill-suited to meet the demands of the 21st century. The Australian Defence Force (ADF), while professional and effective within its scope, lacks the scale and appropriateness of capability to secure the nation’s interests across vast maritime and economic domains.
Australia relies heavily on maritime trade, with 99 percent flowing through sea lanes. However, the overstretched Royal Australian Navy (RAN) is unable to adequately safeguard critical trade routes or protect offshore energy infrastructure in the resource-rich north-west. This shortfall arises from capabilities that need better alignment with national aims and an acquisition program that could be more responsive to emerging threats. As tensions rise in the Indo-Pacific, Australia’s inability to project naval power or effectively counter a capable adversary highlights a critical vulnerability in its defence posture.
The Australian government should consider adjusting its defence acquisition program to more effectively address immediate capability gaps. This recalibration should prioritise assets that are both operationally effective and quickly deployable, such as missile boats capable of patrolling maritime chokepoints and unmanned systems suited to the vast distances of the Indo-Pacific.
The current strategy prioritises long-term, high-cost platforms that fail to deliver the operational readiness and flexibility required for the challenges of the present decade. While investments in large-scale, multi-billion-dollar platforms like submarines and frigates are important and necessary, their extended timelines leave Australia vulnerable in the short to medium term, particularly in the Indo-Pacific’s increasingly contested environment.
Equally concerning is Australia’s fragile energy security. Over 90 percent of the nation’s fuel is imported, with limited domestic refining capacity. The corresponding dependence on external supply chains leaves Australia acutely vulnerable to disruption. A well-planned adversarial action could sever these lifelines, triggering a cascading crisis that would cripple essential services and undermine national resilience—from food distribution to emergency services.
Australia’s broader economic and industrial vulnerabilities are equally pressing. Decades of deindustrialisation, pursued in the name of economic efficiency, have eroded Australia’s manufacturing capabilities, leaving critical gaps in essential goods production. One example is the decline of oil refining capacity, with only two operational refineries remaining. Another is the housing crisis. Often framed as a supply-and-demand issue, Australia’s housing crisis reflects a broader failure of infrastructure development and future workforce planning.
These vulnerabilities have been exacerbated by a focus on short-term gains over long-term resilience. Critical investments in defence, energy, and infrastructure have been delayed, deprioritised or inappropriately politicised, while the outsourcing of essential industries has left the nation increasingly exposed to global shocks. This neglect has contributed to the erosion of public trust, broader economic fragility, and strategic vulnerability. In sum, it is a break of the social contract. How can the government repair it?
While the government is already taking steps to enhance defence capabilities, there remains an urgent need for continued and expanded investments to modernise the ADF, ensuring the protection of trade routes and maritime resources. Developing a credible naval presence in the Indo-Pacific is essential to deter aggression and safeguard national interests.
Nations like Japan and South Korea provide instructive examples of balancing immediate defence needs with long-term strategic investments . Both countries have successfully implemented layered strategies that include agile, deployable assets for immediate threats alongside broader investments in long-term capabilities. Australia must adopt similar strategies to achieve a robust defence posture.
Energy security must also be strengthened. Increasing domestic refining capacity and building strategic fuel reserves will mitigate dependence on fragile supply chains. These measures would enhance resilience in the face of potential disruptions. For example, the United States’ bipartisan approach to energy security has enabled it to achieve energy independence, enhancing national resilience while lowering energy costs. Australia can draw lessons.
Revitalising Australia’s industrial base is equally critical. Rebuilding domestic manufacturing capability will reduce reliance on external markets for essential goods while addressing structural challenges such as housing shortages. However, tackling housing affordability and availability requires not only investment in construction but also innovative approaches to labour supply, productivity, and material costs to overcome existing constraints and meet demand effectively.
Australia is grappling with a systemic failure, marked by an inefficient allocation of capital and insufficient strategic investment. This imbalance, compounded by a sustained decline in national productivity, signals a weakening of the social contract. A government’s primary responsibility is to create conditions that ensure the long-term prosperity and security of its citizens. Yet, by prioritising short-term economic gains over meaningful investments in infrastructure, innovation, and industry, the state undermines the economic resilience needed to fulfill this obligation.
With rising geopolitical tensions and unpredictability, the stakes could not be higher. Strengthening defence, securing energy supplies, and rebuilding industrial resilience are national imperatives. Restoring Australia’s social contract requires bold and bipartisan action.
Reviving the social contract will involve opportunities for innovative thinking and collaborative action. By engaging in open dialogue on these critical issues, we can explore approaches that balance immediate needs with long-term resilience. In a world increasingly defined by uncertainty and competition, rebuilding Australia’s social contract is essential. Through bold, bipartisan action, we can ensure a resilient, secure, and prosperous future for generations to come.
This article was published by The Australian Institute of International Affairs.

Joseph Zeller is a Senior Manager at the Australian Maritime Safety Authority and a serving naval officer with extensive experience in defence and national security. He is a graduate of the Australian War College.