Make room, make room!

The Australian people, and most journalists, are being “gaslighted” by the Treasury budget papers’ superficial analysis of Australia’s immigration and population growth according to according to Sustainable Population Australia (SPA).

They also criticise the lack of media scrutiny or public debate about the government’s assertions that immigration has to increase to match previously announced targets.

Successive Australian governments have used high levels of immigration to artificially inflate growth figures and create demand in the economy, but the influx of hundreds of thousands of people a year into Australia’s cities has contributed to the housing, schooling and congestion crisis now affecting all Australians. 

SPA national president Ms Jenny Goldie says the most egregious Treasury claim is that Australia’s population growth needs to ‘catch up’ after the slow-down during the pandemic.

“This claim is based on the convoluted logic that current population levels are ‘lower than expected’ — these expectations having been set by Treasury forecasts prior to the pandemic,” she says.

“So this is a circular, Alice-in-Wonderland argument: our population goal becomes whatever Treasury has defined it to be at some prior point. Any subsequent real-world deviation from whatever Treasury targeted pre-pandemic, requires that we must ‘catch up’ — no matter at what cost to ordinary Australians. The implicit arrogance is palpable.

“Why, though, should population have to catch up to Treasury’s target? Is there some missing consumption or production that needs to be recovered? Hardly. Whatever demand for labour may have accumulated during the pandemic, it hardly requires 715,000 immigrants over this year and next, fuelling a massive population growth rate this year of 2%.

“Yet we have Budget Paper No. 1 breathlessly warning us that ‘Notwithstanding the recovery in net overseas migration, the total population is still expected to be 750,000 people (2.5 per cent) smaller in June 2031 compared with pre-pandemic forecasts.’ (Budget Paper 1, p. 59, emphasis added)

“No doubt this will generate alarmist headlines saying that ‘Australia to have smaller population in 2031’ – when in fact, according to Centre for Population projections, it would be larger by some three million people than our current population of 26.4 million,” Ms Goldie says.

“This is a textbook example of gaslighting: the insidious alteration of the markers of reality, until we no longer know what is real.”

Ms Goldie says another deceptive claim in the Treasury documents is that ‘migration [is] forecast to largely return to normal patterns from 2024–25’ (Budget Paper 1, p. 59).

“On the contrary, there is nothing normal about this. Treasury’s new projections (or targets) show net overseas migration (NOM) to remain at 260,000 per year through to at least 2026-27.  That’s nearly as high as Josh Frydenberg dared to go in 2019. It is higher than last year’s budget projections of 235,000 for those same years and higher than the actual 2007-20 average of 226,000 – which is itself more than three times higher than the twentieth century average peacetime net overseas migration of about 62,000.

“The Treasury budget paper adds that ‘Once the temporary catch-up effect from the pandemic subsides, net overseas migration is expected to return to more normal levels, falling back towards historical trends of 235,000 per year, which is the assumed level into the medium term.’ So now 235,000 is being presented by the Treasurer as the ‘historical trend’, when it is anything but. More gaslighting,” Ms Goldie says.

“What is distressing is that while Treasury plays these numbers games, the acute pressures of extreme population growth continue apace. For real people, this means housing stress, skyrocketing rents, stagnant wages growth, more congested infrastructure and health services, and environmental deterioration.

“Such things are far from the minds of Treasury and, it seems, far from the minds of many media commentators,” Ms Goldie added.

“Treasury’s extreme population growth is accelerating the end of a fair go for Australians and it’s no longer the lucky country, with millions struggling with the cost of living crisis with rising rents and mortgages.”

2 Comments

1. 

   Bob Ford

   May 19, 2023 at 8:54 pm

   It matters not what Political Party is in power, the public service Departments cannot see the wood for the trees. Principally because any suggested policy must have a financial return to the Government of the day. Housing is a classic example, Australia has currently Seven Million Homes, One million for various reasons according to the latest census, are unoccupied. Thirty percent of homes in Australia,are mortgage free.
   That’s around Two Million occupied homes. I would suggest approx half these are on reasonable size blocks of land, say 700 sq mts or more. A huge cost, impediment to building for low cost rental is the State Government Fee’s and Charges, Local Government costs and delays to building caused by the Red and Green tape of both these tiers of Government.
   A Federal Government could sideline both State and Local Governments by financially incentivizing the construction of Tiny Homes or Granny Flats in the Backyards of existing home owners. Offer Grants and Tax Incentives to achieve this by Mortgage free owners. They should indeed be rewarded for a loss of their present exclusive privacy. These small structures are built to code, transportable or flat packed, constructed in a factory situation in mere days. The only requirement a Council Building Permit Approval. A Permit that cannot realistically be withheld if adequate land size is available. The ACCC could monitor and prevent predatory behavior by a Shire Council.
   Such a scheme to boost available rental stocks would be fast, require no Land Subdivision or headworks, stamp duty or other impediments.
   Not every problem is solved by whats financially in it for Government. Making it financially rewarding for those that can afford to assist solve a problem, crazy idea right.
2. 

   Bob Ford

   May 22, 2023 at 8:03 pm

   Whilst I do not believe I am a Conspiracy theorist, I am very definitely a cynic. On Our Prime Minister Mr Albanese $10B Housing Investment fund, I will offer the following. Federal Government only directly fund the building of housing, for Indigenous Aboriginals.
   Should the Voice which is a racist concept did get up. Our Prime Minister who see’s Government for himself for 10 years, would use the Investment profits derived to do just that . Build Aboriginal Housing. It has always been front and centre of demand by every Aboriginal Voice to all Governments for over 50 years that I’ve been politically aware.
   Our Defence Force, Army sappers, even building houses on Aboriginal Native title lands.
   Bob Ford